Rising Health Insurance Costs and Policy Uncertainty in the U.S. and Switzerland

Health insurance premiums in the U.S. are expected to rise sharply in 2026, driven by inflation, an aging population, and costly new treatments. Health care costs are projected to grow 6.5%, outpacing wage growth of 3%, meaning workers will spend a larger share of their income on coverage. About 60% of employers plan to increase both payroll contributions and out-of-pocket costs like co-pays and deductibles. The rise follows a decade of moderate increases and marks the fourth consecutive year of significant cost growth.
A recent survey shows that rising health insurance premiums are a growing concern for Swiss households. About 68% of respondents support introducing a single-payer system, with broad approval across ages, political affiliations, genders, and income levels. However, only 36% favor reducing the number of hospitals as a cost-cutting measure. Around 9% expect difficulty paying higher premiums next year, and 5% are unsure how they will manage. The survey sampled 24,500 people across German-speaking Switzerland, French-speaking Switzerland, and Ticino.
Millions of Americans who buy their own health insurance through the Affordable Care Act could face doubled premiums if Congress doesn’t extend enhanced tax credits. About 22 million people currently benefit from these credits, which make coverage more affordable, especially for low- and middle-income individuals. Without them, many could drop coverage, becoming uninsured, while insurers may raise rates further anticipating healthier people leaving the market. This could strain hospitals, particularly in rural areas, and create broader public health and financial challenges. Extending the credits costs roughly $35 billion annually, but is seen as necessary to help people afford increasingly expensive health insurance.
U.S. health insurance subsidies set to expire at the end of 2025 could sharply raise premiums and leave millions without coverage. Enhanced during the pandemic and extended through 2025, these tax credits currently help reduce costs for many Americans. Experts warn that without renewal, premiums could jump by up to 75%, with even higher increases in some states. Ending the subsidies may result in 3.7 million people losing insurance and becoming uninsured, while insurers may preemptively raise prices to offset uncertainty.
California is preparing for a potential health insurance crisis as expiring Obamacare subsidies could double premiums, forcing up to 400,000 people to drop coverage. Covered California and state officials are weighing contingency plans, including using $190 million in reserve funds to help low-income consumers, though this falls far short of the $2.5 billion gap. Nearly 90% of enrollees rely on financial assistance, and losing it could drive healthier, younger individuals out of the risk pool, further destabilizing the marketplace. Lawmakers remain divided, with Democrats demanding subsidy extensions and Republicans delaying negotiations until year-end, creating uncertainty for the upcoming enrollment period. Even without a full collapse, premiums are expected to rise by at least 10%, marking the first double-digit increase in nearly a decade.